FORECASTINGNobody Saw It Coming: How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World By Mann Virdee and Megan Hughes Published 1 February 2022 The problem with planning for the future is that it is fundamentally uncertain, and predictions often fall flat when compared with reality. This gap—between the limits of what

NUCLEAR SAFETYThe Resilience and Safety of Nuclear Power in the Face of Extreme Events By Matthew Fisher Published 1 February 2022 As the prospect of extreme global events grows — from natural disasters and intensifying climate change-driven weather patterns that could affect a nuclear plant, to a rise in infectious diseases that could affect its

ENERGY SECURITYRussia’s Energy Role in Europe: What Is at Stake with the Ukraine Crisis By James McBride Published 31 January 2022 The prospect of a major Russian offensive in Ukraine has brought European dependence on Russian energy into sharp relief and set off a scramble for alternatives. The threat of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine

ENERGY SECURITYCan the U.S. Find Enough Natural Gas Sources to Neutralize Russia’s Energy Leverage Over Europe? By Amy Myers Jaffe Published 31 January 2022 The prospect of conflict between Russia and NATO countries over Ukraine has raised fears of an energy crisis in Europe. To weaken Russia’s leverage, the Biden administration is working to secure

INFORMATION OPERATIONSCyber Activists Confront Russian Information Operations Published 31 January 2022 Russian information operations against the Western democracies will grow in number, scale, and sophistication in the coming years. A new study examines the role of cyber activists in Western societies in fighting back against the growing problem of Russian disinformation. Russian information operations against the

QUICK TAKES // BY BEN FRANKELGeography is Destiny: Ukraine’s Options Are Limited Published 28 January 2022 Russia is much stronger militarily than Ukraine. When Russia suffered setbacks on the battlefield, it never hesitated to launch massive, indiscriminate, and destructive attacks on the civilian population and infrastructure, as was demonstrated in the two Chechnya wars. If

IRAN’S NUKESU.S. Mulls Iran’s Bomb-Making Scenarios Iran Nears Uranium Breakout Capacity By Michael Lipin and Guita Aryan Published 28 January 2022 With the United States warning that Iran is just weeks from developing the capacity to make a nuclear weapon, there is disagreement among Washington experts on the likelihood of Iran rushing to build such

CHINA WATCHTwo Things to Know about the U.S.-China Competition By William Giannetti Published 28 January 2022 A debate about China’s “inexorable” rise has been occupying the op-ed pages of leading newspapers and the conference rooms of leading think tanks for some time now. China’s rise is real, but the U.S. has the means to keep

UKRAINE CRISISRussia’s Recent Invasions of Ukraine and Georgia Offer Clues to What Putin Might Be Thinking Now By Liam Collins Published 28 January 2022 Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014. A look at the two invasions against neighboring territories offers insight to what a possible new invasion would entail if diplomacy

NUKE-GUARDING DOLPHINSDolphins Guard U.S. Nukes Published 28 January 2022 Despite all the technological advancements warfare has seen in the last century, the U.S. Navy demonstrates that sometimes, nature offers intriguing options – like using dolphins to protect the waters around Bangor, Washington, which is the largest single nuclear weapons site in the world. Despite all the